The economic Covid is over in the West – but beware of a shock from Asia

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There are now 350 reported cases in China. The country has only a few days to suppress this, even with the instruments of total electronic surveillance and the party commissioners in every bloc.

If he doesn’t, expect oil and iron ore prices to drop, as futures markets call for drastic social restrictions and a halt to internal passenger flights. China imports more crude than the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom combined. It consumes half of the world’s production of iron ore.

Unlike the rest of East Asia, China vaccinated furiously after some delay. The doses reached 1.65 billion jabs. Their effectiveness is a hot topic of controversy. Two Hungarian scientists claim in a new study (without peer review) that only half of people over 80 who received two doses of Sinopharm in Hungary had detectable antibodies.

Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have all cut back on Chinese vaccines, switching to Pfizer, Moderna or AstraZeneca for the second dose or for boosters. A Thai study claimed that antibodies were halved every forty days for the Sinovac alternative vaccine.

Chinese vaccine diplomacy has collapsed. The mistrust runs deep, which is not surprising given that the Chinese Communist Party has politicized the process and deployed its wolf-warrior media in a disinformation campaign to dump everyone else’s vaccines.

But there is nothing more slippery than the debate over vaccine effectiveness, usually involving poorly understood concepts or comparing apples and oranges. A Chilean study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, which is peer-reviewed, found that the Sinovac jab widely used in Chile was 66% effective against contagion, 88% against hospitalization and 86% against death.

I suspect that the workhorse Chinese vaccines get a bad rap in this odd mood of vaccine policy and vaccine snobbery. My sympathies go out to the Sinovac team in Beijing who worked day and night to produce a jab for the world at breakneck speed, only to receive a slap in the face.

If Asia’s recovery is at stake, it is now clear that the pandemic is all but over in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and continental Europe, although you can come up with catastrophic scenarios of ever-increasing variants. serious.

The United States Centers for Disease Control says only 0.5% of people who currently die from Covid in America are vaccinated. The case fatality rate for the double bite fell below the seasonal winter flu. Science has delivered.


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