Lack of experience, corruption and nepotism in the Philippine political scene would likely exacerbate instability and support the underperformance of the country’s struggling economy, according to a UK economic think tank.
“Lack of experience in policymaking, corruption and nepotism have all contributed to political instability,” economist Gareth Leather of London-based research firm Capital Economics said in a statement on Friday.
“[Instability] has been a key factor in the economy’s underperformance over the past decades, âsaid Leather, citing the World Bank’s (WB) governance indicators.
According to the World Bank, the Philippines’ average political stability score from 1996 to 2020 was among the worst in Asia.
In a range of ratings with a maximum score of 2.5 positive and the lowest at 2.5, the Philippines’ score was greater than 1 negative.
“The next presidential election in the Philippines is not before May , but the contest is already making headlines with former boxing world champion Manny Pacquiao this week announcing his intention to run, âCapital Economics noted.
Leather said, “Name recognition goes a long way in Philippine politics, which is why the actors and children of former presidents represent three of the last four presidents.”
âHowever, name recognition does not correlate with governance skills,â Capital Economics said, noting that the Philippines was not in good shape with its worst economic recession since World War II and its continued fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.
The UK think tank estimated in a Sept. 29 report that the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) would likely have seen only a lackluster rebound in the third quarter due to a further rise in virus cases and the reintroduction of containment measures. “
Less than 20% vaccinated
“Our mobility tracker shows that even though the movement of people increased again following an easing of restrictions in Manila earlier this month, it is still around 35% below pre-pandemic levels,” said Capital Economics.
âVaccination continues to progress slowly. So far, less than 20% of the population has been fully stung and the government is unlikely to meet its goal of fully inoculating 70% of the population before the end of 2021, âhe added. 5% PH growth this year
Capital Economics expects the Philippine economy to grow 5% this year, hitting the high end of the government’s reduced 4-5% target range.
Due to the weak base effects, Capital Economics forecast GDP growth of 11% next year and 9% in 2023, reversing the record 9.6% contraction in economic output last year.
Last February, Capital Economics said the Philippines was on track to become the 18th largest economy in the world by 2050 if it could improve its “appalling” infrastructure.
The Inquirer reported Capital Economics ‘optimism that the Philippines’ nominal GDP could reach $ 4.86 trillion in three decades, so that nominal GDP per capita would also reach $ 33,650.
In 2019 or before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the Philippines’ nominal GDP was the 30th largest in the world.
Among the member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while the Philippines could exceed by 2050 the nominal GDP of Thailand, which in 2019 ranked 23rd, its rise would be eclipsed by neighboring Indonesia and Vietnam.
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